Mid-Year Economic Report Card

Mid-Year Economic Report Card

September 2, 2025

Host: Dr. Jamie Mitchell

Guest: Ron Joelson

Note: This transcript is taken from a Stand in the Gap Today program aired on 9/02/25. To listen to the podcast, click HERE.

Disclaimer: While reasonable efforts have been made to provide an accurate transcription, the following is a representation of a mechanical transcription and as such, may not be a word for word transcript. Please listen to the audio version for any questions concerning the following dialogue.

Jamie Mitchell:

Well, good afternoon and welcome to Stand In the Gap Today I am your host, Jamie Mitchell. I remember my dad often singing the song, what a Difference a Day Makes. It was made famous by Dina Washington in 1959. Consequently, that was the year I was born. Maybe that’s why he was singing it. What a difference a Day Made when I was born. Well, all kidding aside, we could rework the words and say it this way, what a difference six months makes when it comes to the economy. Less than a year ago, we saw many troubling signs in regard to our nation’s economic forecast, and then Donald Trump became president. We anticipated things getting better just by him handling the fiscal policy of our country during his first term. Yet we couldn’t imagine all that has occurred. These first six, seven months of his second term is president. Now, today we want to recap the first half of the year of how the administration is doing and we want to talk money and to help us a return guest and the guy I count on to help me understand financials in many ways. And that is our friend Ron Joelson. Ron, welcome back to Stand In the Gap today, my friend.

Ron Joelson:

Great to be back, Jamie. Has it been only six months? So much has happened. It’s been like a whirlwind.

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron, when it comes to the economy, my head is spinning and that’s why we got you here to kind of anchor us down. You were with us at the beginning of this year when we did our economic outlook program, and we had some hopeful things that we were hoping for as things turned around, but I think many have been surprised how well things are going. Can you give us a little recap of what we were anticipating in general to the US economy and kind of where we are today?

Ron Joelson:

Well, I’d say at that time, Jamie, the world was not so optimistic. Economists and at least one political party and a few standouts from the other said that tariffs would destroy the economy, that Trump would be a disaster. They thought unemployment would rise, that policies would only help the wealthy. And you and I, we talked a lot about the underlying strength of the US economy, about the consumer driving GDP growth once again, and the bet against America crowd, frankly, I think has been proven wrong. The elimination of illegal aliens has kept the job market strong and while first quarter GDP was flat to slightly negative, two Q rebounded significantly with a 3% annualized increase. Lower imports helped as did consumer spending. And frankly, it was a lot better than the consensus forecast of 2.4% CPI. Inflation dropped to 2.4 year over year in first quarter, and CE slowed from three and a half to two and a half.

So PCE is that sort of comprehensive measure of prices of all goods and services. Core PCE excludes food and energy. That’s what the Fed likes to look like. And that eased from 3.7 to 2.1. So decent growth, we haven’t had the inflation that everybody thought, in fact, mid-year inflation was somewhere between 2.3 to 2.7, but from economists, you would think this was the calm before the storm. I can’t say enough, Jamie, that people’s political views have shown up in economic reporting. And the best example I have of it is when that July CPI number was reported, I got on my phone the following text, you’re not going to believe it. Fox said Inflation cools slightly in July from the month before Yahoo Finance said, which hates Trump core inflation rose the most in six months in July, and then the Wall Street Journal was somewhere in the middle.

Bloomberg, which hates Trump said the underlying inflation accelerated in July to the strongest pace since the start of the year. So you can’t make it up. Everybody is looking at things from the lens of what they believe and they’re taking these numbers and reporting them in any which way they want. And I’ll just say this on the earnings front, the S&P 500 companies were up about 10% in Q1 and almost 12% in Q2. So tech and AI continue to lead keeping inflation down with companies using technology to improve efficiency. I think it looks pretty good, Jamie.

Jamie Mitchell:

Well, Ron, things like the market continue to creep upward just so our people, they don’t traffic in this. What’s a good year in regards to the market rising up? I mean, I used to hear that seven, eight, 9% return on your money and investments was a good thing. What does it look like for this coming year? Is it going to be a good year in regards to our money growing in this coming year?

Ron Joelson:

Year? Well, so far so good, right? So far for this year we’ve seen 11 plus percent growth in the market in the S&P 500. So I mean that’s pretty decent. It’s actually not that far from long-term averages, but the way things are and sort of the mindset that people have these days, those long-term averages are not going to be a bad thing to have people get upset when they see the 2008 kinds of market declines where you could have 50% decline in two years. That’s the thing that people worry about. So when we clip along at eight 10%, I think people feel pretty good about that, especially relative to fixed income and other markets. And it looks like we’re headed for that, certainly for this year and probably even a little bit better than that.

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron, you’ve mentioned all the major indicators, GDP and consumer index and unemployment and those kinds of things. Is there any one thing that either sticks out good or bad as you look at 2025 and as we approach the fall?

Ron Joelson:

Yeah, I mean, I was surprised by how much earnings beat expectations. So Goldman Sachs supported something like 84% of companies beat expectations and earnings, and Q2 was only expected to grow 4% versus the 12 that we got, or 11.8. So more than half of reported companies raised their guidance. So that was kind of a big surprise to me and very important, right? Company earnings are critical to market performance. So I’m struggling to listen to anyone’s forecast these days. Everyone seems to get it wrong, but the bottom line is the markets are the best indicators. Traders seem to cut through the BS and their betting line is starting to be better than polls at predicting elections. So I think the markets are probably one of the best indicators we have about what’s going on.

Jamie Mitchell:

As we have said in the past on whatever programs I’ve done with Ron Friends, is that the economy affects so much of our life here in America and it touches all that we do. It touches businesses, it touches schools, it touches everything because money is what makes the world go round, but it also affects how we deal with foreign nations. Well, that’s one thing we have learned from Trump. He’s using the economic issues to bring even peace. Now when we come back, we want to look at how foreign policy and economic policy goes hand in hand, and maybe we have found some of the secrets of bringing peace across the globe. We’re talking about the economy with Ron Joelson here today on Stand In the Gap Today. Thank you for staying with us on an important day here at Stand In the Gap. Today we’re providing a mid-year progress report concerning the economy and many things that have taken place since January of 2025.

After years of a sluggish economy. We’re starting to see some good signs and we just got a great report from our guest, Ron Joelson, who’s here to help review these things and make sense for us. Ron, one of the big stories that you touched on a little bit in the first segment these past six months is the topic of tariffs. Now, probably many Americans really don’t understand how they work and why they are vital to our economy, and you even mentioned some of the naysayers about them, but can you explain what a tariff is and how it works?

Ron Joelson:

Sure. A tariff is just really a tax on imports. So before products can be sold in the us, the government adds a fee and the administration, of course believes that terrorists protect local businesses and encourage local businesses because consumers may be able to buy cheaper goods if they’re made here in the US, and they also can raise money to offset deficits and can be used as a threat to open up markets in other countries. If tariffs to the US aren’t lowered, of course other countries can also tariff us. And then it has negative relative effects.

Jamie Mitchell:

And just so we, again, trying to make sense of somewhat of a topic that we hear in the news and we hear the bad things and all this tariffs have been around for a long time. This is not a new thing. This has been around a long time, hasn’t it?

Ron Joelson:

Oh, absolutely. You can go back to 19th century, even 18th century, and you’ve had pro tariff and anti-tariff discussions. I think most economists tend to come out against them because they’re so-called anti-free trade. We’ll get into that a little bit, but yeah, that’s been around a long time.

Jamie Mitchell:

And along with this issue of tariffs and understanding this, Ron, one of the problems is that if it becomes financially difficult for a country to send their products to another country, they may move their whole operation to that country, especially if they can get things like cheaper labor to do the work. That’s a part of this whole discussion, isn’t it?

Ron Joelson:

Well, yeah. So part of the hope is that tariffs can also be used as a negotiating tool. So for example, Trump will say to a company overseas, I know you don’t like these tariffs, but you know what? If you were to build something here, you could avoid those tariffs. And of course that has resulted in many, many countries raising their hands and saying, Hey, we’d like to build in the us and they’re actually competing with each other to establish manufacturing here so as to avoid the tariff.

Jamie Mitchell:

So let’s just talk about what has taken place, if I remember correctly, and it does seem like the last seven, eight months of all that’s happened, our heads have been spinning, but as soon as Trump announced that he was going to start to tariff other countries equal to what they were going to tariff us, the sky was going to fall down. What actually has happened now, Ron? What has been the outcome of this movement to level the playing field?

Ron Joelson:

Well, tariffs on other countries are actually landing, and the hype is what causes all the consternation, but tariffs on other countries that are actually landing at about 15.8% probably will end up in this 15 to 20% range. And tariffs on the US are much higher. And of course, this is the one thing Trump is trying to do even out what has been an unfair trade practice for many, many years. So Trump is often hailed as being against fair trade, but he’s actually trying to set a level playing field. And I believe that unfair trade practices over decades have resulted in the US losing manufacturing superiority. And it’s downright dangerous because we no longer manufacture medicine here, other critical products, and Trump for the first time is trying to reverse this trend. So it’s very much a long-term strategy. I mean people that don’t know for sure if it’s going to work, but it looks like it is working because of what you already mentioned about companies willing to build their manufacturing here.

And basically there are two reasons why it should work. One, the US consumer market is so strong globally. It’s about 25% of global GDP, 70% of the US, GDP and 25% globally that I believe countries will manufacture in the US, as we said, to avoid the tariff. And the second thing is allowing the US to compete overseas is worth doing in order to access other markets. That’s part of the negotiation. Again, people tend to come out on tariffs the way they vote. I’ve seen Democrats love tariffs until Trump came in and vice versa with Republicans. So we got to cut through all the nonsense and really look at what the long-term impact is, and the idea is to create fair trade. Unfortunately, we haven’t had fair trade in a very, very long time, so to correct it looks like you’re doing something that isn’t fair, but in reality it absolutely is.

Jamie Mitchell:

And Ron, you just said something that piqued my interest and that is that these other countries, they want access to our markets, to our consumers, to the American people who tend to purchase things and buy things and consume things. They want access to those markets because of how healthy our economy is. Is that what it is?

Ron Joelson:

I mean, basically it’s American optimism and spending that really has a global impact on the economy and we’re willing to spend and sometimes maybe it’s to our detriment that we’re spending into savings or we don’t save enough. But the reality is there’s sort of a mentality in this country that things will be better. I can grow out of problems that I have. I can make money if I work hard, and so I’m not so scared that I have to save every last dime. There are countries where Japan, where the saving rates are so high, it’s hard for them to get their populations to spend. It’s not really a problem in the US sometimes a little to our detriment, maybe we borrow too much, but the US has shown an ability to reduce their borrowings when times are bad and not be afraid to turn on spending. And so the world has seen that and wants to be a part of it by manufacturing here and by selling here.

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron, maybe I’m missing something or maybe I’m slanted, but here’s the observation. A novice like me when I look at this whole thing, it seems like because these other countries want to have access to our markets, that they’re also willing to sit down and resolve conflicts. I looked at the foreign policy this last six, seven months and see where we’ve seen some peace agreements come and nations that have been fighting for all these years. It seems like we’ve been able to sit down with these countries and find diplomatic results in their conflicts because they want to have access to America’s markets and they don’t want to be tariffed off of the planet. Am I seeing that right or am I missing something?

Ron Joelson:

No, I think you’re nailing it. I mean, how else can you explain foreign European leaders actually saying that Trump was right about they’re not paying their fair share in NATO. You can’t explain why they would change their view on that other than concern about upsetting the US and not being able to compete in our markets because of tariffs. So it is absolutely the case that the tariffs and the negotiation that’s going on is also having a significant impact on what’s going on international relations,

Jamie Mitchell:

And he is now bringing factions together by also bringing about economic sanctions that kind of goes hand in hand with tariffs, doesn’t it? Ron? When we start imposing certain sanctions on what people can do and what they can’t do, how does sanctions like on Russia and others, how does that affect their economic standing in this whole thing?

Ron Joelson:

Well, sanctions will only have an impact if they’re accepted globally. So if you put restrictions on Russia and buying from them, but other countries are perfectly willing to do it like China, then you’re not really going to have as much of an impact as you would like to have. However, when we talk about accessing US markets, that’s a real pocketbook issue that we do control. So that is a better way to have a global impact. Simply having those sanctions, as I say, will only work if you can build a coalition, although there’s been some success at doing that. Before we leave tariffs though, I do want to mention that there is some negatives mostly around inflation, right? People worry that tariffs because of the way they work could result in consumers paying higher prices because less efficient manufacturers being helped by the tariff, but is that really different than China paying its own workers next to nothing to beat pricing in the us? So I just want to mention that there is a downside and the consumer does pay for some of those, but what we’re also seeing is manufacturers are willing to bite the bullet on that, and so there is an offset. So it has not really shown up significantly in inflation yet.

Jamie Mitchell:

And the fascinating byproducts of this administration’s economic policy is that the world is willing to cooperate with us and seek peace when those things didn’t happen in the past. Hey, look, when we return, what about the BBB, the big beautiful bill? We’re going to start to unravel that a little bit and give some understanding here at standard the gap today I mentioned the song, what a Difference a Day Makes. Here’s another appropriate song fitting for today’s program. Money Makes the World Go Around. We are seeing that in nations groups and people that could be enemies towards each other, but they can find a common ground, and that is economically, we can often find peace and resolution when we start talking money with these countries. Ron Joelson understands this through his decades of working in the financial world. Ron, on the 4th of July, president Trump signed his first major piece of legislation called the one Big Beautiful Bill. It was an all encompassing bill touching almost every area of government, yet the centerpiece of the BBB was a major tax break or at least keeping it in force, and there were many other economic initiatives. I want to talk about that Bill and break it down a little bit, but out of the get-go, can you explain what the tax breaks were and that it was an extension of previous tax breaks and why that was so important to get that through and really what everybody said was the prime reason for that bill happening?

Ron Joelson:

Sure. I mean, well first of all, while Trump was signing the one big beautiful bill on 4th of July, I was having one big beautiful burger. But that’s the difference between us I guess. But it was an extension of the brackets that were established in 2017 that otherwise would’ve expired, so that had to be done or the economic impact would’ve been pretty dire. And interestingly in 2017, the trade-off was really to eliminate mortgage and state and local tax deductions, which really hurt the high state tax states like New York, New Jersey, California. But this bill keeps the 2017 rates and the mortgage deduction on up to about 750,000, but allows some deduction for state taxes, although it only applies through 2029 and there’s a phase out for higher income, but still net net. By keeping the lower brackets from 2017 and adding back the state tax deductions, it does make it more of a cut, Jamie, than just an extension.

Of course that contributes to the cost of the bill. However, we saw very positive effects from tax changes on the economy in 2017, and the hope is that the add-ons to this bill will offset some of the loss revenue and that things like tax credits for seniors and child credits make this bill have a little bit for everybody. It’s hard for Democrats to say Trump is only for the rich when you have a lot of these provisions that help people that are on that get tips and other things, although of course they’re still saying it,

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron, I think that’s part of the problem. They say that making a bill is making sausage. You got to keep throwing things in and grinding it up and grinding it up, and it’s within that process that we don’t get to hear everything that’s in the bill as it was once said, well, we need to vote for the bill for you to know what’s in the bill, which always made me a little sick to my stomach when I would hear those kinds of things. Can you give us some of the things within the bill economically that are noteworthy? Things that we as Americans need to understand was in that bill that was for good or is going to have some kind of economic impact?

Ron Joelson:

And it’s not all for good. Let’s remember there are things in there that had to be included such as the debt ceiling was raised by about 5 trillion, frustrating a lot of budget hawks. It also allowed deductions for auto loans on cars manufactured in the us, obviously trying to encourage manufacturing here as said, eliminating tax on tips and overtime with limits, but also the bill adds a lot to military spending, really offsetting cuts from previous administrations, but also border protection, which was a big part of what Trump, the reason why he was elected. It eliminated a lot of tax credits. This is important for green initiatives including for EVs and solar. And the reason why this is important, because it’s making a statement about what this administration believes about these green initiatives, and they’re really saying two things. One, it’s not clear that these things will help.

And two, when a lot of big countries don’t do the same thing, all you do is hurt the US When countries like China and India aren’t really doing anything, they say things but they don’t do them. Why are we making all of these restrictions on manufacturing? Because it won’t help if it’s not a worldwide thing in any case. So those are really important things that are going on. He’s hoping that he will offset the cost of the bill by cutting regulatory red tape by doing things in oil and gas industry. And I think those things will help. Will it fully offset the cost? We’ll have to see. It’s going to take a long time, but these are some of the things that I think people need to know about the bill and perhaps don’t,

Jamie Mitchell:

And shame on us as Americans, some of this nonpartisan evaluation, meaning being able to know exactly what’s in the bill. We can find out if we go on internet and do a little research and go looking for it. We don’t have to hear the democratic view or the Republican view. We can actually see those things, but it takes some time. And one of the things, Ron, and you would understand this we’re both about the same age, is when I heard things like Medicare cuts, seeing that I’m now at that age, I had to go in and actually see what that meant. And some of the things that were being said were just not true. And so as Americans, we have a responsibility to go and find out this information and not just rely on the political wrangling. I think that’s one of the frustrating things, isn’t it as an American that we hear this stuff, but we don’t go and check it for ourselves. A word to our listener, Ron, we really do need to do research on these things when they come out.

Ron Joelson:

You really do. Jamie, you brought up Medicare, which is a great example. Medicaid rules also have been used to frighten people, but what they’re trying to do with Medicaid is just say, look, you’re going to have to show us your financial position every six months to continue to get benefits. And if you are able to work, you’re going to be required to show a minimum number of hours to get benefits. If you’re not able to work, you won’t. And so those are things that I think are important and good things. Not everybody’s going to love that. If you were getting benefits while you were working, I guess you’re not going to like it, but it doesn’t make sense to have other Americans pay for your doing that. So cleaning up Medicaid is a lot different than cutting Medicaid, and you do have to do your own research to see it.

Jamie Mitchell:

I just was doing some study myself, run on Medicare and Medicaid, and boy, if they just go back to some of the original rules and intent and how it was supposed to be run, I think you would take a great segment of people who are getting those benefits and they’re not going to have those benefits because they really shouldn’t be allowed to get them. Now we have about three minutes left for this segment, and I want to touch on something that is related, and there’s a big, big, big upheaval about the Fed and rates and cutting rates and not cutting rates and Trump’s argument with Jerome Powell and now even the firing of one of the governors of the Fed. Could you explain to our listeners what that fight is about? Why is there a big deal about needing to have the fed cut rates of money lending?

Ron Joelson:

Well, Trump wants to see rates cut because for two reasons. One, other countries have done it and usually the global rates kind of move together. And so it seems strange to him why this country is not cutting rates. The reality is that Powell has said all along, I don’t want to cut rates and fuel an economy because it’s going to add to inflation. Well, what seems to have happened is inflation has been really cooled. So if inflation has cooled, what is keeping you from keeping the rates artificially high relative to other countries, you should lower them to be in line. And by the way, that’s exactly what you did under the Biden administration. And so before you say that Trump is being political, were you being political, Mr. Powell, when you lowered rates at that time when we had inflation and didn’t do it at this time, when we don’t, it doesn’t seem fair.

And it seems like you are being political. So depending on which side of the aisle you on, you could decide that either side is being political in what they’re doing. The reality is that we do have to be a little bit careful about just simply lowering rates to make it easier to have deficits. That’s not great. One of the things Trump likes is the fact that if there are lower rates, the interest on the debt will be lower. Well, maybe it’s really important to cut down the deficit itself and not just make it easier on yourself with lower rates. So I have some sympathy for Powell on that front, but the reality is it does seem to me that he’s been pretty political about it. And so Trump will continue to push for lower rates because it will fuel growth.

Jamie Mitchell:

Wow. And it will also fuel hopefully investments, people will be able to get money out of the banks at a cheaper rate and maybe start building homes or doing some remodeling or even starting new businesses and making investments here at America, which is a great transition because talk about investments. When we finish our program on kind of a midyear economic progress report, I want Ron to help us understand why are foreign nations giving the United States all kinds of money and what does it mean for our economy? We finish up this great program on economy with Ron Joelson. Stay with us. Without question. One of my favorite programs to host on Standing the Gap today is our economic outlook programs with Ron Joelson. I know that sounds crazy from someone who thrives on theology and ministry, but I also know how impactful the economy is both spiritually and prophetically. Money will play a big part in believers’ lives. That’s why we need to be informed and discerning. Ron, we are hearing in the news on a daily basis, foreign nations investing in American manufacturing. I got to be honest, I don’t understand it or maybe I’m trying to sort it all out. Part of it comes from I think the whole tariff negotiations, but why are we hearing about billions of dollars flooding into America? What does this mean and is this a good thing or should we be concerned as a nation?

Ron Joelson:

Well, first of all, it is an amazing list. So let’s start with that. And investments in the US by Apple, 600 billion Oracle as part of operation of Stargate, another 500 billion Nvidia, another 500 micron tech, which is a chip manufacturer, 200 IBM 150. Another the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturer, a hundred Johnson and Johnson, 55, AstraZeneca. I could go on and on. The list is incredible. And there are 79 other companies that I haven’t mentioned and six countries totaling about $4.7 trillion. Each one is trying to outdo the other, and I think part of it is tariffs, but part of it is, look, they know that Trump has a tremendous impact and for the first time they see a president who actually is able to get things done. And I really think that they believe that getting on his good side, knowing that he wants that investment here will help them access these markets in ways that we don’t even know yet.

And so they are rushing because this is one of those places where a capitalist society is anxious to have business, and so they want to take advantage of that because there’s not that many countries that have that view. Now, I do want to throw a caution out there, two cautions. The first one is I remember in 2017 the Foxconn investment that Trump touted didn’t pan out in Wisconsin the way we thought it would. And also this government is also talking about having equity investments in businesses. I’m just cautious about that. I don’t like the government owning means of production. I think under Trump it might be okay, but do we want to set that precedent for future administration? So I will throw that out as a caution, but overall, there’s tremendous upside to these deals, and it’s a good way to jumpstart the manufacturing renaissance that Trump knows needs to happen.

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron, if you can, can you just give us a little bit of insight on debt? We still have an enormous amount of debt, and obviously it has to do with spending and taking in more money. I’m hearing things like we may have a surplus this year of money. Where are we when it comes to debt? Are we being aggressive enough to really go after the debt problem we have here in America?

Ron Joelson:

No, I mean the debt is about 37.2 trillion, something like that. And no, we are not being aggressive enough. Trump hopes we will grow our way out of it. As I mentioned at the outset, we’re adding to the deficit. It is possible that with all of the deals and tariffs and other things that are happening that we may end up within a positive annual amount. I don’t think that will happen, but some economists are forecasting that, but we will not dig into the $37 trillion of overall debt without some serious change. I do think that that’s being left for future administrations, and we may see some of it grow out from inflation and other things, but nonetheless, no, that is still a major nut to crack. We are not alone. Almost every major economy has as much if not more debt relative to their GDP than we do. We are on the high end of the global scale because we have an economy that can support that kind of debt. So let’s not forget that there is a reason why there is confidence that the US can have that debt. It’s because we have a very diversified economy to pay it off. So it’s high, we can afford it, but we’ve got to do something about it. We can’t let it stay forever.

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron, do you think that we will ever get back to having a balanced budget in the federal government?

Ron Joelson:

I actually think that’s part of the answer, Jamie. I think that we are likely to end up with a balanced budget at some point the way a lot of states have it, but that may be the best we can do that. We can’t expect to reduce the deficit, but maybe we can stop increasing the deficit. And what that means is over many, many years, inflation itself in effect on a real basis reduces the deficit that you have. So I think that’s what we have to shoot for, is to try to balance the annual budget in some fashion in the future. And that’s the first step. Once people see that the US isn’t going to add significantly to the debt, then they will have restored confidence and we’ll be able to live with the debt that we do have.

Jamie Mitchell:

Part of that though is that Congress is going to have to play ball and not just keep kicking things down the road, actually go through an appropriations process, put an actual budget together, vote on that budget. And so Ron, as we come and face the fall, one of the things that are now going to start hearing more and more about is midyear elections. And from my gut, as I look at the political landscape, I think the economy is going to be one of the big issues come this midterm elections. What do you think about that?

Ron Joelson:

Well, I do think the economy will be a big part of this. I think it’s likely that the Republicans will focus on the economy because there’s going to be enough good things to talk about. But I think the Democrats will focus less on the economy and more things like, Hey, we’ve got a guy in the Oval Office that is taking over our cities by putting in boots on the ground to handle crime and all of those things. So they’re going to, I think, focus more on issues that will instill fear, people concerned about some right wing takeover of cities, et cetera, et cetera. So I don’t think both sides are going to use the economy, but we’ll see.

Jamie Mitchell:

How is the US dollar being viewed around the globe right now, Ron? I think I know the answer of this, but how does the globe view our dollar? Right now,

Ron Joelson:

Dollar has fallen about 11% versus other countries, and people fear the equity market will correct. I say wrong. Currency swings tell you absolutely nothing about equity markets. A weak dollar makes us goods more attractive overseas and with tariff barriers, negotiations, evening out tariffs that could jumpstart exports, but a weak dollar can also be inflationary as raw material purchases are more expensive in dollars. So you can argue a weak or strong on either side, right? A strong dollar makes borrowing more expensive for other countries who borrow in US dollars making default a higher probability. So if you’re bullish, you tend to focus on the benefits of the weak dollar. If you’re bearish, you focus on the negatives. The bottom line here are the numbers. US stock throws 44 out of the last 56 years since 68. The up years were evenly split between years where the dollar strengthened and where it weakened. So basically wherever your view is, you can support it with a dollar, and you should not focus on the dollar as being the impact on the market.

Jamie Mitchell:

Ron Joelson, thank you. Hey, our job is to live and lead with courage. Thanks for listening today, folks. See you tomorrow.